Why Watch Prices Crashed in 2025 (And What to Buy Now)
Understanding the 2025 luxury watch market correction. Why prices fell, which brands dropped most, and the best buying opportunities right now.
Why Watch Prices Crashed in 2025 (And What to Buy Now)
The luxury watch bubble didn't pop — it deflated. Slowly, then suddenly, then steadily for 18 months.
Between 2021 and early 2023, the secondary market for luxury watches went insane. A steel Rolex Submariner hit $18,000. Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711s traded for $180,000. Omega Speedmasters that retailed for $6,500 sold for $9,000.
By mid-2025, those prices had collapsed 30–50% from peaks. The Submariner settled around $12,000. The Nautilus dropped to $90,000. The Speedmaster came back to earth at $5,500.
What happened? And more importantly: what should you do about it?
What Caused the 2021–2023 Bubble
Understanding the crash requires understanding the bubble. Several forces converged:
Pandemic Economics
COVID-19 stimulus checks, reduced spending on travel and experiences, and work-from-home boredom created a wave of discretionary spending. Watches became pandemic purchases — tangible assets when everything else felt uncertain.
Interest Rates at Zero
With savings accounts yielding nothing, alternative assets seemed smart. Watches, art, sneakers, wine, crypto — all benefited from money looking for returns.
Social Media Hype
Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok created a feedback loop. Watch content creators pumped enthusiasm. FOMO spread virally. People who'd never cared about watches suddenly "needed" a Submariner.
Artificial Scarcity
Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet produce limited quantities relative to demand. This is intentional. During the bubble, Authorized Dealers couldn't get stock, pushing buyers to the secondary market where prices ran wild.
Speculation
By 2022, people were buying watches not to wear but to flip. The secondary market became a trading desk. Arbitrage plays, purchase history games with ADs, grey market speculation — watches were assets, not objects.
Why Prices Crashed in 2024–2025
The bubble deflated because every force that inflated it reversed.
Interest Rates Rose
The Federal Reserve raised rates from 0% to 5%+ between 2022 and 2023. Suddenly savings accounts paid 4–5%. Bonds paid 5–6%. The opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding watch increased dramatically.
Money flowed out of alternative assets and back to traditional finance.
Stimulus Ended
The pandemic spending surge was a one-time event. By 2024, those funds were spent or invested elsewhere. The wave of new buyers crested and receded.
Speculation Burned Out
The flippers who bought watches to profit discovered a falling market. Paper gains became paper losses. Panic selling accelerated the decline as speculators tried to exit.
Supply Caught Up (Slightly)
Rolex increased production modestly. More importantly, the secondary market flooded with unworn pieces from speculators and buyers who changed their minds. Supply/demand rebalanced.
Enthusiasm Faded
The TikTok generation moved on. Watches became less trendy, less viral, less urgent. The FOMO evaporated.
The Damage: Price Declines by Brand
Not every brand fell equally. Here's how the major players fared from peak (early 2022) to stable (late 2025):
Rolex
| Model | 2022 Peak | 2025 Stable | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Submariner Date 126610LN | $18,000 | $12,000 | -33% |
| GMT-Master II Batman 126710BLNR | $24,000 | $15,000 | -38% |
| Daytona 116500LN | $42,000 | $28,000 | -33% |
| Explorer I 124270 | $12,000 | $7,500 | -38% |
| Datejust 41 126334 | $14,000 | $10,500 | -25% |
Rolex dropped hard but found a floor above retail for most sports models. The brand's core appeal held.
Patek Philippe
| Model | 2022 Peak | 2025 Stable | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nautilus 5711/1A (discontinued) | $180,000 | $90,000 | -50% |
| Aquanaut 5167A | $55,000 | $32,000 | -42% |
| Calatrava 5196 | $22,000 | $18,000 | -18% |
The Nautilus experienced the most dramatic crash, returning to prices closer to (though still absurdly above) the $35,000 retail. Classic Patek dress watches held value better.
Audemars Piguet
| Model | 2022 Peak | 2025 Stable | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Oak 15500ST | $55,000 | $32,000 | -42% |
| Royal Oak Offshore 15710ST | $35,000 | $22,000 | -37% |
AP tracked Patek's decline. The Royal Oak remains expensive but not insane.
Omega
| Model | 2022 Peak | 2025 Stable | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speedmaster Moonwatch 310.30 | $9,000 | $5,500 | -39% |
| Seamaster 300M 210.30 | $5,500 | $3,500 | -36% |
| Aqua Terra 220.10 | $5,000 | $3,200 | -36% |
Omega dropped proportionally more because the peaks were less justified — the brand was never truly scarce.
Tudor
| Model | 2022 Peak | 2025 Stable | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black Bay 58 79030 | $5,000 | $3,000 | -40% |
| Pelagos 25600TB | $4,500 | $3,200 | -29% |
Tudor fell significantly but remains excellent value at current prices.
What This Means for Buyers
The correction is good news if you're buying. Here's how to think about it:
1. The Market Is Now Rational (Mostly)
2022 prices were fantasy. A steel Daytona at $42,000 was pure speculation. Current prices reflect actual utility and collectability rather than FOMO.
You're no longer buying at the top of a bubble.
2. Retail Is Achievable for Some Models
Rolex ADs still have waitlists for Submariners and Daytonas, but less popular models are available at retail. Datejust, Oyster Perpetual, even some Explorer Is can be purchased without games.
Secondary market premiums on these pieces have shrunk or disappeared.
3. Pre-Owned Is Compelling
With speculators exiting, the pre-owned market is flush with lightly-worn pieces at significant discounts to retail. A 1-year-old Omega Speedmaster at $5,200 is a better deal than a new one at $6,900.
4. Prices May Stabilize Here
Market analysts (WatchCharts, WatchAnalytics) suggest we're near a floor for major brands. Declines have slowed dramatically in late 2025. We might see modest further softening, but a 2021-style crash is unlikely — there's no bubble left to pop.
What to Buy Now
The correction created specific opportunities. Here are the best values in the post-crash market:
Best Value: Omega Speedmaster
At $5,200–$5,800 pre-owned for the current 3861 Moonwatch, this is the most watch-per-dollar in the luxury segment. You get an iconic design, excellent in-house movement, and legitimate NASA heritage.
Target price: Under $5,500 for hesalite, under $6,200 for sapphire sandwich.
Best Value: Tudor Black Bay 58
At $2,800–$3,200 pre-owned, the BB58 is the best all-around sports watch at any price. In-house movement, 39mm perfect sizing, vintage-inspired design without being derivative.
Target price: Under $3,000 on bracelet.
Best Value: Grand Seiko
Grand Seiko was never really in the bubble. Spring Drive models like the SBGA413 trade for $3,000–$3,800 pre-owned — exceptional finishing and a movement unlike anything Swiss at this price.
Target price: Under $3,500 for Spring Drive, under $2,500 for Hi-Beat.
Rolex: Explorer I
The 124270 (36mm) has settled at $7,000–$8,000 pre-owned. That's still above the $7,350 retail, but the gap is small enough to justify the immediate availability and no-games purchasing.
Target price: Under $7,500.
Rolex: Datejust 41
The 126334 trades at or slightly below retail pre-owned for many dial colors. Blue dial on Jubilee runs $10,000–$11,000 against a $12,000+ retail. This is a rare opportunity to buy a Rolex at a discount.
Target price: Under $10,000 for popular configurations.
Risk/Reward: Rolex Submariner
The Sub has stabilized around $11,500–$12,500 pre-owned for the 126610LN. Still above $10,250 retail, but much more accessible than the $18,000 peak. If you believe Rolex will continue restricting supply, buying now locks in post-crash pricing.
Target price: Under $11,500.
High Risk/High Reward: Patek Nautilus
If you're speculating (not just buying to wear), the Nautilus at $90,000 is interesting. It's still absurdly priced for a steel sports watch, but it's 50% off peak. If demand ever returns, upside exists. But this is not investment advice — it's gambling with extra steps.
How to Time Your Purchase
Market timing is notoriously difficult, but some principles help:
Watch for Price Alerts
Set specific targets for your desired reference and wait. Tools like Dealhound track pricing across platforms and notify you when references drop below market averages. In a slowly declining or stable market, patience pays.
January and Summer Are Soft
Historically, watch prices soften in January (post-holiday selling) and mid-summer (vacation spending). These aren't dramatic swings, but 5–10% variations matter at $10,000+ price points.
End-of-Month Dealer Pressure
Dealers with sales quotas sometimes discount end-of-month to hit numbers. Pre-owned dealers especially may negotiate more aggressively.
New Release Announcements
When Rolex, Omega, or Tudor announce new models (typically at Watches & Wonders in April), the previous generation often drops 10–15% overnight. If you're targeting a current-gen model, wait for the replacement announcement.
What Not to Buy
The crash created buying opportunities but also traps:
Overleveraged Pieces
Watches that were only valuable because of speculation — limited editions with no inherent appeal, celebrity partnerships with no lasting significance — may never recover.
Damaged Goods at "Discount"
The pre-owned market is flooded with pieces that need service, have undisclosed issues, or have been polished poorly. A cheap watch that needs $1,500 in work isn't cheap.
Anything From a Desperate Seller
Panic sellers accept bad deals. Panic buyers make bad purchases. If someone is pressuring you to buy quickly, walk away.
The Outlook for 2026 and Beyond
No one can predict markets perfectly, but reasonable scenarios:
Most Likely: Prices stabilize near current levels with modest variation. Rolex and Patek maintain soft premiums on sports models. Tudor, Omega, and others settle at or near retail. The market returns to being a market rather than a casino.
Possible Upside: Economic improvement, rate cuts, or renewed enthusiasm could push prices modestly higher. Don't expect 2022 peaks, but 10–20% recovery is plausible.
Possible Downside: Recession or continued high rates could push prices lower. Sports models might touch retail. Significant upside in this scenario comes from buying at the bottom.
Final Thoughts
The 2024–2025 watch market correction wasn't a disaster — it was a correction from an irrational peak. Prices are now closer to fair value, availability is better, and the hype-fueled buyers have left.
For genuine watch enthusiasts, this is the best market in years. You can buy quality pieces at reasonable prices, wear them without worrying about depreciation, and focus on what actually matters: the watch on your wrist.
The bubble is gone. The watches remain. Time to buy.
Tracking prices in a shifting market? Dealhound monitors luxury watch pricing across major platforms and alerts you when your target hits your price.