Tracking Rolex Submariner Prices: 5-Year Market Analysis
Complete 5-year Rolex Submariner price analysis (2021-2026). Historical data, current market position, and where prices are headed.
Tracking Rolex Submariner Prices: 5-Year Market Analysis
The Rolex Submariner is the most tracked watch in the world. Its price movements signal broader market trends, investor sentiment, and collector psychology. For the past five years, those prices have told a dramatic story: euphoric rise, painful correction, and cautious stabilization.
This analysis tracks Submariner prices from 2021 through early 2026, explains what drove each phase, and offers perspective on where we are now.
The References We're Tracking
We'll focus on the modern production Submariners:
- 126610LN — Submariner Date, black dial, black ceramic bezel (current production)
- 126610LV — Submariner Date, black dial, green ceramic bezel ("Starbucks")
- 124060 — Submariner No Date, black dial, black ceramic bezel (current production)
- 116610LN — Previous generation Date, black/black (discontinued 2020)
- 116610LV — Previous generation Date, black/green "Hulk" (discontinued 2020)
Retail prices for context:
- 126610LN: $10,250
- 126610LV: $10,750
- 124060: $9,100
- 116610LN: Was $9,050 (2020)
- 116610LV: Was $9,550 (2020)
Phase 1: The Ascent (January 2021 – March 2022)
What Happened
The luxury watch market entered 2021 already heating up from pandemic-driven demand. By March 2022, Submariner prices had reached absurd peaks:
| Reference | Jan 2021 | March 2022 Peak | % Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126610LN | $13,500 | $18,500 | +37% |
| 126610LV | $19,000 | $26,000 | +37% |
| 124060 | $12,000 | $16,500 | +38% |
| 116610LN | $12,000 | $15,500 | +29% |
| 116610LV | $20,000 | $28,000 | +40% |
The discontinued "Hulk" (116610LV) hit nearly $30,000 at peak — almost 3x its original retail price.
Why It Happened
Stimulus-fueled demand: Pandemic relief payments and reduced spending on travel created a wave of luxury purchases.
Zero interest rates: With savings accounts yielding nothing, "alternative assets" became popular. Watches were pitched as investments.
Social media amplification: Watch content on YouTube and Instagram exploded. Every video about "watches that hold value" drove more demand.
Supply constraints: COVID-19 disrupted Rolex production. Already-limited supply became scarcer.
Speculation feedback loop: As prices rose, more buyers entered hoping to profit. Rising prices justified the speculation, which drove prices higher.
Phase 2: The Peak and Pivot (March 2022 – December 2022)
What Happened
Prices plateaued in March-April 2022, then began declining:
| Reference | March 2022 | December 2022 | % Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126610LN | $18,500 | $14,500 | -22% |
| 126610LV | $26,000 | $21,000 | -19% |
| 124060 | $16,500 | $13,000 | -21% |
| 116610LV | $28,000 | $22,000 | -21% |
By year-end, Submariners had given back 20%+ of their gains.
Why It Happened
Interest rates rose: The Federal Reserve began aggressive rate hikes in March 2022. By December, the federal funds rate hit 4.25%. Suddenly, bonds and savings accounts offered real returns.
Crypto collapsed: Many crypto profits had flowed into watches. The crypto crash of 2022 removed liquidity from the market.
Speculation reversed: The same feedback loop that drove prices up worked in reverse. Falling prices caused panic selling, which accelerated declines.
Sentiment shifted: Media coverage turned from "watches as investments" to "watch bubble bursting." Fear replaced greed.
Phase 3: The Slide (January 2023 – June 2024)
What Happened
The decline continued but slowed:
| Reference | Jan 2023 | June 2024 | % Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126610LN | $14,500 | $12,500 | -14% |
| 126610LV | $21,000 | $17,500 | -17% |
| 124060 | $13,000 | $11,000 | -15% |
| 116610LV | $22,000 | $19,000 | -14% |
The market found a floor roughly 30–35% below peaks but still significantly above retail for most references.
Why It Happened
Rate expectations stabilized: While rates stayed high, the market adjusted. The initial shock faded.
Speculative sellers exhausted: Those who were going to panic-sell had mostly done so. Remaining sellers were more patient.
Real demand emerged: Underneath speculation was genuine buyer demand. Those buyers began absorbing supply at lower prices.
Rolex production normalized: Slightly increased production and normalized supply chains improved availability.
Phase 4: Stabilization (July 2024 – Present)
Current Market
As of early 2026, Submariner prices have stabilized:
| Reference | Current Pre-Owned | Retail | Premium/Discount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126610LN | $11,500–$12,500 | $10,250 | +12–22% |
| 126610LV | $16,000–$17,500 | $10,750 | +49–63% |
| 124060 | $10,500–$11,500 | $9,100 | +15–26% |
| 116610LN | $11,000–$12,000 | N/A | N/A |
| 116610LV | $17,000–$19,000 | N/A | N/A |
The "Starbucks" (126610LV) and discontinued "Hulk" (116610LV) maintain meaningful premiums due to green bezel desirability. The standard black references trade at modest premiums over retail.
Why Stabilization Occurred
Market psychology reset: The speculative fever broke. Current buyers are primarily wearing, not flipping.
Price discovery completed: The market found equilibrium between willing sellers and willing buyers.
Economic stability: Despite high rates, the economy avoided recession. Disposable income for luxury purchases remained.
Rolex's pricing power: Rolex raised retail prices modestly each year, narrowing the gap between retail and secondary.
Visual Price History: 126610LN (Date, Black)
Price ($)
$19,000 | *
$18,000 | * * *
$17,000 | * *
$16,000 | * *
$15,000 | * *
$14,000 | * * *
$13,000 | * * *
$12,000 | * * * *
$11,000 | * * Current
$10,250 |----------------------------------------------Retail---------
Jan21 Jul21 Jan22 Jul22 Jan23 Jul23 Jan24 Jul24 Jan25
The pattern: rapid rise, sharp peak, extended decline, stabilization above retail.
What the Data Tells Us
1. The Premium Is Real, But Smaller
Submariners still trade above retail, confirming genuine demand exceeds supply at Rolex's prices. However, the premium has compressed from 80%+ to 15–25% for standard models.
The days of easy money flipping Subs are over.
2. Green Bezels Command Lasting Premiums
Both the "Starbucks" (126610LV) and "Hulk" (116610LV) hold significantly higher premiums than black-on-black references. The market values distinctiveness, and green is the Submariner's signature color variation.
3. Discontinued Models Hold Value Differently
The 116610 generation, discontinued in 2020, has held value better than expected. The "Hulk" particularly benefits from its status as a closed production run.
4. Retail Is the Floor (Mostly)
Submariners haven't traded below retail on the secondary market, suggesting retail price is roughly the value floor. Rolex has room to raise prices without destroying secondary demand.
Forward Outlook: 2026 and Beyond
No one can predict markets reliably, but here are reasonable scenarios:
Most Likely: Continued Stability
Prices fluctuate in the current range (+/- 10%) based on seasonal demand and economic conditions. No dramatic moves in either direction.
This suggests buying now is reasonable — you're not at a peak, and significant further declines are unlikely.
Possible: Modest Recovery
If interest rates decline and economic confidence improves, some premium expansion is possible. 20–30% upside from current levels is plausible over 3–5 years.
This would not recreate 2022 peaks but would reward current buyers.
Possible: Further Softening
Economic recession or Rolex production increases could push prices toward retail. The black-on-black Submariner Date touching $10,500 (near retail) is conceivable.
This would represent modest downside from current levels.
Buying Implications
If You Want a Submariner to Wear
Buy now. Current prices are reasonable, availability is decent, and waiting for further declines risks missing a recovery. The watch will serve its purpose regardless of future price movements.
If You're Speculating
Don't. The easy gains are gone. Submariner returns will likely track inflation plus a modest premium at best. Better speculative opportunities exist elsewhere.
If You're Deciding Between References
- 126610LN (Date, black): The iconic choice. Moderate premium, stable demand.
- 124060 (No Date): Cleaner dial, slightly lower premium. Subjective preference.
- 126610LV (Starbucks): Pay the premium if you love the green. It will likely hold relatively.
- 116610LV (Hulk): Discontinued collectability but higher entry cost. For enthusiasts who want the specific aesthetic.
How to Track Prices
Watch markets move. What's accurate today may not be next month. Resources:
- WatchCharts: Aggregated market data across platforms
- Chrono24 sold listings: Actual transaction prices (with some lag)
- WatchAnalytics: Professional-grade market tracking
- Dealhound: AI-powered price tracking and alerts for specific references
Setting price alerts for your target reference removes the need for constant monitoring. When the market moves in your favor, you'll know.
The Broader Lesson
The Submariner price history illustrates a fundamental truth: markets driven by speculation eventually correct to fundamental value.
Submariners are excellent watches. They're well-made, historically significant, and genuinely desirable. That fundamental value supports a modest premium over retail.
What they're not is a guaranteed investment, a flip opportunity, or a substitute for financial instruments. The 2021–2022 mania treated them as such, and the correction followed inevitably.
For buyers today, that correction is good news. You can acquire an iconic watch at a reasonable price, wear it with enjoyment, and maintain realistic expectations about future value.
That's the healthy relationship with luxury goods that the bubble forgot.
Want real-time Submariner price tracking? Dealhound monitors listings across major platforms and alerts you when your target reference drops into your range.