When is the Best Time to Buy a Luxury Watch?

Timing matters. The same watch from the same seller can cost 15–25% more or less depending on when you buy. That's $1,500–$3,000 on a $10,000 watch — real money left on (or saved from) the table.

This guide covers every timing factor that affects luxury watch prices: seasonal patterns, market cycles, industry events, and personal circumstances. By the end, you'll know exactly when to buy — and when to wait.

Seasonal Patterns: The Annual Rhythm

Watch prices follow predictable seasonal patterns. Understanding these patterns lets you buy low and avoid peaks.

January: Post-Holiday Softness

Price trend: -5% to -10% below annual average

January is consistently one of the best months to buy. Why:

• Gift returns and regrets: Holiday purchases that didn't work out hit the resale market.
• Credit card bills arrive: Sellers who overspent need liquidity.
• New Year's resolutions: Some sellers decide to simplify collections.
• Low buyer activity: Most people aren't shopping for watches after December spending.

The combination of increased supply and decreased demand creates buyer advantage.

Best for: Pre-owned market purchases, negotiating with dealers, finding motivated sellers.

February–March: Recovery

Price trend: Returning to average

The January dip normalizes as tax refunds arrive and spring approaches. Prices stabilize but haven't peaked.

Best for: If you missed January, early February still offers some softness.

April: Watches & Wonders Effect

Price trend: Variable, -10% on previous generation

Watches & Wonders (formerly SIHH + Baselworld combined) typically occurs in April. Major brands announce new models, which affects pricing on previous generations:

• New releases: Current models get replaced by new references.
• Discontinued models: Sometimes become more collectible, sometimes crash.
• Previous generation: Often drops 10–15% as buyers wait for new or pivot to discounted old.

Strategy: If you're targeting a current-generation model, wait until after Watches & Wonders. If the model continues unchanged, nothing lost. If it's updated, the outgoing version drops in price.

Best for: Buying the previous generation after announcement.

May–July: Summer Softness

Price trend: -5% to -8% below annual average

Summer is typically slow for luxury watches:

• Vacation spending: Discretionary budgets shift to travel.
• Reduced attention: Fewer buyers actively searching.
• Dealer inventory: ADs may have flexibility to deal.

This is the second-best buying window after January.

Best for: Negotiating with authorized dealers, pre-owned purchases.

August–September: Pre-Peak

Price trend: Rising toward average

The market begins heating up as fall approaches. Back-to-school spending ends, attention returns to luxury goods.

Best for: If you must buy, early August still has some summer discount. September is already trending up.

October–November: Premium Season

Price trend: +5% to +10% above annual average

This is the worst time to buy. Why:

• Holiday purchasing begins: Buyers shopping for gifts enter the market.
• Bonus anticipation: Year-end bonuses encourage spending.
• Limited inventory: Popular references become scarce.
• Sellers aren't motivated: Why discount when demand is high?

Best for: Selling, not buying.

December: Peak Pricing

Price trend: +10% to +15% above annual average

December is the most expensive month for watch purchases:

• Gift demand peaks: Last-minute shoppers pay premiums.
• FOMO maximized: "Need it by Christmas" eliminates negotiating power.
• Inventory lowest: Best pieces sell out.

Best for: Absolutely nothing, from a buyer's perspective. Unless you're selling.

The Monthly Pattern: End-of-Month Opportunities

Within any month, timing matters:

End of Month (Days 25–31)

Dealers with sales quotas face pressure to hit monthly numbers. This creates negotiating leverage:

• Pre-owned dealers: May accept lower offers to close monthly stats.
• AD salespeople: Personal quotas may motivate flexibility.
• Online platforms: Some sellers cycle inventory monthly.

Strategy: Make offers on pre-owned pieces late in the month. Mention flexibility on timing to close quickly.

Beginning of Month (Days 1–7)

Fresh month, no pressure. Sellers are less motivated to negotiate.

Strategy: Avoid major purchases early in the month unless the deal is already exceptional.

The Weekly Pattern: Weekend Dynamics

Friday–Saturday

Highest traffic, most competition. Sellers expect strong interest and price accordingly.

Strategy: Avoid making final decisions during weekend peak.

Tuesday–Wednesday

Lowest traffic in most markets. Online listings posted on weekends may have reduced competition by midweek.

Strategy: Best time to make offers, browse low-competition auctions, and negotiate.

Market Cycles: Beyond Seasons

Larger economic patterns affect watch prices over multi-year periods.

Interest Rate Cycles

Higher interest rates → lower watch prices (money flows to yield-bearing assets)
Lower interest rates → higher watch prices (money seeks alternative returns)

The 2022–2024 rate hikes contributed significantly to the watch market correction. Future rate cuts could reverse some of this.

Strategy: In high-rate environments (like now), you're buying at lower prices. This is advantageous.

Economic Confidence

Consumer confidence affects luxury spending. Recessions and fear suppress prices; recoveries and optimism inflate them.

Strategy: Counter-cyclical buying works. When others are scared, prices are low. If you have means and confidence, down markets are buying opportunities.

Hype Cycles

Watch market enthusiasm runs in cycles, often driven by social media and content creation. The 2020–2022 cycle was extreme; cycles will continue but likely with smaller amplitude.

Strategy: Buy when attention fades, not when watches are trending on TikTok.

Brand-Specific Timing

Rolex

Best time to buy pre-owned: January and summer
Best time to buy from AD: Anytime you can get an allocation
Watches & Wonders impact: Moderate (Rolex doesn't change dramatically year-to-year)

Omega

Best time to buy pre-owned: January, summer
Best time to buy from AD: End of month, ask for discounts (ADs have flexibility)
Watches & Wonders impact: Significant (Omega updates regularly)

Tudor

Best time to buy pre-owned: January, summer
Best time to buy from AD: Readily available; negotiate gently
Watches & Wonders impact: Moderate (Tudor updates less frequently)

Patek Philippe

Best time to buy pre-owned: During market corrections (like now)
Best time to buy from AD: When hell freezes over (allocations are impossible)
Watches & Wonders impact: Significant for discontinued models

Grand Seiko

Best time to buy pre-owned: Anytime; market is less seasonal
Best time to buy from AD: End of quarter (Japanese fiscal quarters)
New release impact: Moderate

Personal Timing: When You Should Buy

Beyond market timing, personal circumstances matter:

Buy When You Have the Funds

Obvious but important: don't finance luxury watches (interest destroys value), don't stretch budgets, don't prioritize watches over financial health.

The best time to buy is when you can comfortably afford it without affecting other goals.

Buy When You Know What You Want

Impulse purchases rarely satisfy. Spend time researching, trying on, and deciding before buying. The best deals are worthless if you buy the wrong watch.

Strategy: Set your target reference at least 30 days before purchasing. If you still want it after a month, proceed.

Buy When You Find the Right Deal

Sometimes the perfect watch at the right price appears at an inconvenient time. If the deal is genuinely excellent, seasonal timing matters less.

Strategy: Set price alerts (via Dealhound or similar) for your target reference. When the alert triggers, act — regardless of calendar.

Don't Buy During Major Life Events

Wedding, new baby, job change, move — major transitions aren't ideal times for luxury purchases. Your priorities may shift, and the stress clouds judgment.

Strategy: Wait 3–6 months after major life changes before significant discretionary purchases.

The Optimal Buying Strategy

Combining all factors:

1. Set Your Target

Define the exact reference, acceptable condition, and maximum price before looking.

2. Research Market Pricing

Spend 2–4 weeks watching listings for your target. Understand the normal range.

3. Set Price Alerts

Use Dealhound, Chrono24 alerts, or eBay saved searches to monitor your reference automatically.

4. Time Your Search

Begin active searching in January or June. These windows offer the best seasonal pricing.

5. Make End-of-Month Offers

If negotiating, do so in the final week of the month when sellers may be motivated.

6. Wait for the Right Piece

Don't settle. The combination of right watch + right price + right seller is worth waiting for.

7. Act Decisively When Found

When all factors align, buy immediately. Deals don't wait.

What NOT to Time

Some factors aren't worth timing for:

Minor price movements: Waiting months to save $200 isn't worth your time or attention.

Retail restocks: You can't reliably time when an AD will receive a Submariner.

Model discontinuation: By the time discontinuation is announced, prices have already moved.

"The bottom": You'll never perfectly time a market bottom. Close enough is good enough.

Case Study: Timing an Omega Speedmaster Purchase

Target: Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch 310.30.42.50.01.002 (sapphire sandwich)
Budget: Under $6,000 pre-owned

Optimal Timing:

1. Set Dealhound alert for 310.30 under $6,000
2. Begin active search in January
3. Check Chrono24 listings daily during weeks 2–4 of January
4. Make offers on suitable listings, targeting 5–10% below ask
5. If unsuccessful in January, resume in June–July

Result: Found a 2023 example at $5,800 on January 22nd from a Chrono24 seller. Verified, purchased, received. Market price at time of purchase was $6,200–$6,500.

Savings from timing: ~$500 (8%)

Final Thoughts

Timing a watch purchase correctly can save meaningful money — but timing isn't everything.

The most important factors remain:

1. Buying a watch you actually want
2. Paying a fair price (not necessarily the lowest)
3. Buying from a trustworthy source
4. Having the financial means

Get those right first. Then, if you have flexibility, use timing to your advantage.

The watch will still tell the same time whether you bought in January or October. But your wallet will know the difference.

Don't want to manually track prices? Dealhound monitors the market and alerts you when your target watch hits your target price. Set it and let timing come to you.